St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Brendan DonovanBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 5 ER, 10 K
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting2-4, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Bryce ElderPitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Donovan singled to right, Burleson scored and Contreras scored.9–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–5
- 9Burleson singled to right, Siani scored.7–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging7–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 6Rosario homered to right center (411 feet).6–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–5
- 6Ozuna homered to left center (431 feet).6–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–4
- 6Riley homered to center (419 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Donovan homered to right (389 feet).6–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Ozuna homered to left (424 feet).5–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 25–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 15–2
- 2Contreras singled to left, Winn scored, Burleson to second.5–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 15–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 2Burleson singled to right, Siani scored, Winn to second.4–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 2Gorman homered to right center (407 feet), Arenado scored.3–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 33–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 23–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 13–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML STL -120 / ATL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 40%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.8 pts
- STL: Elo 40.3%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- ATL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1482 | 1549 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | −19 | STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Bryce Elder: team allows 0.93 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +68 Elo | ATL 59.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 50.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.78th of 30 |
| 17th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–33rd of 30 |
| 15th of 3024–25 | Road vs home | 30–174th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–49 | 46–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 15–30 | 36–44 |
| Underdog | 32–19 | 10–6 |
| Overs–unders | 46–48–2 | 33–60–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 4–6 ATL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.