Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Seiya SuzukiBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Hayden WesneskiPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting3-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wisdom homered to left (393 feet).3–11
- 9Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–11
- 9Pitch 8 : Ball 32–11
- 9Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball 22–11
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–11
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–11
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 12–11
- 4Gorman doubled to right, Arenado scored.2–11
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–11
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 32–10
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 22–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 12–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–10
- 4Mastrobuoni hit sacrifice fly to center, Happ scored.2–10
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–10
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 2Pagés singled to center, Arenado scored, Donovan thrown out at third.1–10
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–10
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 1Burleson homered to left (371 feet), Siani scored and Winn scored.1–9
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–9
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–6
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–6
- 1Winn singled to center, Arenado scored and Donovan scored, Siani to third.1–6
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–6
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–4
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 1Siani hit by pitch, Nootbaar scored, Donovan to second, Arenado to third.1–4
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Contreras scored, Donovan safe at first on fielding error by pitcher Wesneski, Arenado to second, Nootbaar to third.1–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CHC +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 46%
- Ratings vs. market
- −10.4 pts
- STL: Elo 46.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1481 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | −12 | CHC: Hayden Wesneski: team allows 0.16 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.59 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +27 Elo | CHC 53.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 51.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 50.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.523rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–515th of 30 |
| 23rd of 3021–28 | Road vs home | 23–2115th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–46 | 45–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 14–28 |
| Underdog | 37–17 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–52–1 | 43–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–9 STL in their last 19 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 19.