Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Nico HoernerBatting2-4, 2 RBI
- Kyle HendricksPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Paul GoldschmidtBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Goldschmidt singled to left, Winn scored, Contreras to second.5–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 8Bote doubled to left, Morel scored and Swanson scored.5–0
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play5–0
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 23–0
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 7Hoerner hit sacrifice fly to right, Mastrobuoni scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 4Swanson singled to left, Happ scored.2–0
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 21–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 3Hoerner grounded out to shortstop, Mastrobuoni scored, Crow-Armstrong to third.1–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play1–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball 30–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 10–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 64%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 64%
- ML CHC +170 / STL -200
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 60%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −12.3 pts
- STL: Elo 52.0%, market 64.3%
- Fair odds
- STL -180
- CHC +180 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 3.6 – 4.9 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1508 | 1483 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −22 | −1 | CHC: Kyle Hendricks: team allows 1.10 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +14 Elo | STL 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 61.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 59.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 64.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 11th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 5th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 24th of 3020–28 | Road vs home | 23–2014th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–46 | 45–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 14–27 |
| Underdog | 36–17 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 42–51–1 | 43–46–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 9–9 STL in their last 18 meetings; the forecast called 9 of 18.