Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Christopher MorelBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching5.2 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Morel homered to left (394 feet).8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 8Happ homered to center (439 feet).7–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Burleson homered to right (374 feet).6–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 16–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 6Morel homered to left (399 feet), Suzuki scored.6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 5Crow-Armstrong homered to center (411 feet).4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Nido homered to right (366 feet).3–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Suzuki reached on infield single to second, Hoerner scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 3Crow-Armstrong homered to right (403 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 2Pagés singled to left, Donovan scored and Arenado scored, Pagés out stretching at second.0–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 52%
- ML CHC +100 / STL -120
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.1 pts
- STL: Elo 48.0%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -109
- CHC +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.2 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1506 | 1485 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | +1 | CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +14 Elo | CHC 52.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 57.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.519th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.322nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 26th of 3021–30 | Road vs home | 25–2113th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–47 | 46–48 |
| Last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 15–29 |
| Underdog | 38–18 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 44–52–1 | 45–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–11 STL in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.