Chicago Cubs at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cubs- Miguel AmayaBatting1-2, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Javier AssadPitching2.1 IP, 3 ER, 0 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 8Arenado singled to center, Contreras scored and Goldschmidt scored, Arenado to second.4–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 2Burleson hit sacrifice fly to center, Gorman scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Suzuki singled to left, Hoerner scored, Busch to second.4–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball 23–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 2Hoerner singled to center, Crow-Armstrong scored.3–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 32–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 22–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Amaya homered to center (404 feet), Swanson scored.2–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 1Contreras homered to right (364 feet).0–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 1Winn homered to left (404 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 10–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML CHC +120 / STL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.6 pts
- STL: Elo 49.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- STL -130
- CHC +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CHC 4.0 – 4.5 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CHC | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +5 | CHC: Javier Assad: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.24 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +7 Elo | CHC 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 52.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CHC | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.121st of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 19th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.423rd of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 24th of 3021–29 | Road vs home | 24–2114th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CHC |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–47 | 46–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–29 | 15–28 |
| Underdog | 37–18 | 31–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–52–1 | 44–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CHC 10–10 STL in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.