St. Louis Cardinals at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Miles MikolasPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Gorman scored on throwing error by catcher d'Arnaud, Siani stole third.6–2
- 9Gorman scored on throwing error by catcher d'Arnaud, Siani stole third.6–2
- 8Contreras homered to right (364 feet).5–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 5Arcia singled to left, Laureano scored.4–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 5Burleson singled to right, Siani scored.4–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–1
- 4Nootbaar homered to center (412 feet).3–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 3Kelenic homered to right (400 feet).2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Burleson homered to right (435 feet).2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Goldschmidt homered to left (365 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 57%
- ML STL +120 / ATL -145
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.4 pts
- ATL: Elo 62.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- ATL -130
- STL +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.0 – 4.5 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1546 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | +2 | STL: Miles Mikolas: team allows 0.21 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.09 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +85 Elo | ATL 62.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 57.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.317th of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.61st of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 13th of 3025–25 | Road vs home | 30–185th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–49 | 46–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 36–44 |
| Underdog | 32–19 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 47–48–2 | 34–60–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 5–6 ATL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 11.