Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Marcell OzunaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Spencer SchwellenbachPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Mets- Brandon NimmoBatting1-4
- Tylor MegillPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 7Rosario homered to right (351 feet).4–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 5Arcia singled to left, Murphy scored.3–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 4Olson homered to left center (383 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 4Ozuna homered to left center (423 feet).1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML ATL +105 / NYM -125
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 48%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.0 pts
- NYM: Elo 48.3%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- ATL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.6 – 3.9 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1534 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −9 | ATL: Spencer Schwellenbach: team allows 0.04 more runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · NYM: Tylor Megill: team allows 0.46 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +12 Elo | ATL 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 26th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3024–27 | Road vs home | 28–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–56 | 48–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 10–8 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 36–63–3 | 55–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–8 NYM in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 14 of 21.