Cincinnati Reds at Atlanta Braves, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ATL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Reds- Jake FraleyBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Frankie MontasPitching4.1 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Braves- Jarred KelenicBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Grant HolmesPitching3.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 4Steer doubled to left, Candelario scored and De La Cruz scored.9–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play9–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 19–4
- 3Rosario hit sacrifice fly to center, Olson scored.7–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 3Marte doubled to center, Steer scored and Stephenson scored.7–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–3
- 3De La Cruz homered to right center (402 feet).5–3
- 3Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 25–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 15–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 2Kelenic singled to center, Arcia scored and Short scored.4–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 1Ozuna grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Kelenic scored, Alvarez Jr. out at second.4–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 14–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 1Fraley homered to right (371 feet), Stephenson scored.4–0
- 1Pitch 8 : Ball In Play4–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 24–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 1Steer tripled to right, Steer scored on throwing error by second baseman Short and De La Cruz scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Braves 54%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ATL 54%
- ML CIN +110 / ATL -130
- Pre-line forecast
- ATL 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ATL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.2 pts
- ATL: Elo 54.5%, market 54.3%
- Fair odds
- ATL -119
- CIN +119 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- CIN 4.1 – 4.4 ATL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | CIN | ATL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1500 | 1540 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | −37 | CIN: Frankie Montas: team allows 0.49 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · ATL: Allan Winans: team allows 1.83 more runs than with its usual starter (≈5 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ATL +31 Elo | ATL 54.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ATL 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ATL 58.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ATL 54.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| CIN | Stat | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| 14th of 304.4 | Runs scored | 4.218th of 30 |
| 10th of 304.1 | Runs allowed | 3.71st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.68th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–25 | Road vs home | 30–206th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  CIN |  ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–46 | 46–53 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 23–28 | 36–46 |
| Underdog | 32–18 | 10–7 |
| Overs–unders | 47–53–1 | 34–62–3 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
CIN 2–5 ATL in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 7.