New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Francisco LindorBatting3-6, 2 HR, 5 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching5.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Wells singled to right, Torres scored, Rice to second.12–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul12–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul12–3
- 8Vientos hit sacrifice fly to right, Gamel scored.12–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play12–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 112–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking12–2
- 8Lindor homered to left center (432 feet), Iglesias scored and Taylor scored.11–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play11–2
- 8Taylor grounded into fielder's choice to third, McNeil scored on throwing error by third baseman Cabrera, Iglesias to second.8–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Vientos homered to left center (377 feet).7–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul7–2
- 6Taylor singled to right, McNeil scored, Alvarez to second.6–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 5Lindor homered to right (385 feet), Taylor scored.5–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Alonso homered to left center (399 feet), Martinez scored.3–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Soto homered to center (443 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Taylor homered to left (399 feet).1–1
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 21–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 11–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Torres homered to left (389 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML NYM +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.5%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- NYM +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1534 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +14 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.15 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.72 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +59 Elo | NYY 58.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3025–22 | Road vs home | 27–2212th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–54 | 54–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 34–43 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 53–46 | 55–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 5–2 NYY in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 7.