Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose SiriBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zack LittellPitching5.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Juan SotoBatting3-5, 2 HR, 4 RBI
- Carlos RodonPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 10 K
Scoring summary
- 8Soto homered to right (385 feet), Cabrera scored and Grisham scored.1–9
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–9
- 7Soto homered to right (424 feet).1–6
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–6
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–6
- 5LeMahieu homered to left (368 feet).1–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 5Siri homered to right center (364 feet).1–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–4
- 4Cabrera singled to right, Judge scored and Wells scored.0–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 2Volpe homered to left (384 feet).0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Wells homered to right (373 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 61%
- ML TB +145 / NYY -175
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- NYY: Elo 56.6%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -156
- TB +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1507 | 1533 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | −7 | TB: Zack Littell: team allows 0.47 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Carlos Rodon: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +46 Elo | NYY 56.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.94th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 4th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 11th of 3023–22 | Road vs home | 26–2112th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–53 | 53–47 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 33–42 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 49–50 | 54–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 14–11 NYY in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 25.