Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Brandon LoweBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Zach EflinPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Anthony VolpeBatting2-4, 3 RBI
- Gerrit ColePitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Judge singled to right, Soto scored.1–6
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–6
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 31–6
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 21–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 11–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–6
- 6B. Lowe homered to right center (384 feet).1–5
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 31–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 21–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Soto doubled to left, Soto scored on throwing error by second baseman Palacios.0–5
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–5
- 3Volpe doubled to left, Soto scored, Wells scored and Judge scored.0–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–4
- 3Verdugo grounded out to shortstop, Rice scored, Judge to second, Soto to third.0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 60%
- ML TB +140 / NYY -165
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.8 pts
- NYY: Elo 58.1%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- NYY -149
- TB +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1504 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +11 | TB: Zach Eflin: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Gerrit Cole: team allows 0.56 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +57 Elo | NYY 58.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 56.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 12th of 3021–21 | Road vs home | 25–1911th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–52 | 52–45 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 32–40 |
| Underdog | 24–19 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 47–49 | 52–44–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–10 NYY in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 22.