Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Jose CaballeroBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Shane BazPitching3.1 IP, 0 ER, 1 K
Yankees- Aaron JudgeBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Marcus StromanPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Soto doubled to left, Rice scored.6–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 9Caballero homered to left (346 feet).6–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 36–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 26–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 7Judge homered to left (444 feet), Cabrera scored and Soto scored.5–3
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Swinging5–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–3
- 7Siri homered to center (433 feet), Rortvedt scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 4Caballero singled to center, J. Lowe scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 4Arozarena homered to left center (420 feet).2–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
- 1Palacios homered to right (365 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 7 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball 31–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 57%
- ML TB +120 / NYY -145
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- NYY: Elo 57.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- NYY -130
- TB +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 4.5 – 5.0 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1505 | 1535 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +3 | +5 | TB: Shane Baz: team allows 0.17 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYY: Marcus Stroman: team allows 0.23 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +49 Elo | NYY 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 57.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.02nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +1.02nd of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 13th of 3022–22 | Road vs home | 26–2011th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–53 | 53–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 33–41 |
| Underdog | 25–20 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 48–50 | 53–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 13–11 NYY in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.