Tampa Bay Rays at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rays- Randy ArozarenaBatting4-5, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Taj BradleyPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Yankees- Ben RiceBatting1-4
- Nestor CortesPitching4.1 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jones grounded out to shortstop, Soto scored.9–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul9–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 19–1
- 9DeLuca grounded out to second, Mead scored, Arozarena to third.9–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging9–0
- 7Arozarena homered to left center (412 feet), Paredes scored.8–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking8–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 28–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–0
- 5Arozarena homered to left center (418 feet).6–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 5Paredes homered to left (346 feet).5–0
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball 35–0
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 4Jackson homered to right center (364 feet), Caballero scored and Walls scored.4–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 34–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–0
- 3Mead doubled to center, Jackson scored.1–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML TB +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.0 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.1%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- TB +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TB 3.8 – 4.7 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TB | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1501 | 1538 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | TB: Taj Bradley: team allows 0.62 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Nestor Cortes: team allows 0.35 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +35 Elo | NYY 55.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TB | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 27th of 303.9 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3021–22 | Road vs home | 26–199th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TB |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–53 | 53–45 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–33 | 33–40 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 47–50 | 52–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TB 12–11 NYY in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 23.