New York Mets at New York Yankees, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYY.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Yankees- Gleyber TorresBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Luis GilPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 6Verdugo doubled to center, Volpe scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 6McNeil homered to center (393 feet), Alonso scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 33–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Lindor hit by pitch, McNeil scored, Taylor to second, Torrens to third.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 2Torres homered to right center (365 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Yankees 59%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYY 59%
- ML NYM +135 / NYY -160
- Pre-line forecast
- NYY 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYY 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- NYY: Elo 55.7%, market 59.1%
- Fair odds
- NYY -145
- NYM +145 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 5.2 NYY
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | NYY | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1503 | 1536 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −2 | NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.44 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYY: Luis Gil: team allows 0.09 more runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYY +40 Elo | NYY 55.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYY 59.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYY 58.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYY 59.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 5.01st of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 3.96th of 30 |
| 16th of 30+0.1 | Margin | +1.12nd of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 8th of 3024–22 | Road vs home | 27–2111th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 44–54 | 54–47 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 20–34 | 34–42 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 20–5 |
| Overs–unders | 53–45 | 55–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 4–2 NYY in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 6.