Atlanta Braves at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Braves- Adam DuvallBatting2-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Charlie MortonPitching2.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Mets- J.D. MartinezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kodai SengaPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 9 K
Scoring summary
- 9Duvall homered to center (433 feet).4–8
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–8
- 6Ozuna homered to left (377 feet).3–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–8
- 4Vientos walked, Nimmo scored, Alonso to second, Martinez to third.2–8
- 4Pitch 5 : Ball 42–8
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 32–8
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 22–8
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–8
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–8
- 3Alvarez homered to left center (409 feet).2–7
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–7
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 3Vientos homered to left center (378 feet), McNeil scored.2–6
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–6
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–6
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–6
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–6
- 3Martinez homered to right (367 feet), Taylor scored, Lindor scored and Nimmo scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 32–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 22–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 2Duvall homered to left (392 feet), Rosario scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 55%
- ML ATL +115 / NYM -135
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 51%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 52.9%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- NYM -124
- ATL +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- ATL 3.5 – 4.0 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | ATL | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1536 | 1510 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +22 | ATL: Charlie Morton: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Kodai Senga: team allows 1.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +20 Elo | NYM 52.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 51.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| ATL | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 19th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 2nd of 303.7 | Runs allowed | 4.622nd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 27th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 17th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 27–2516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  ATL |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–55 | 47–54 |
| Last 10 | 2–8 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 36–48 | 20–34 |
| Underdog | 10–7 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 35–63–3 | 54–47 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 3–7 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
ATL 13–7 NYM in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 20.