Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4
- David FestaPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 6 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Scoring summary
- 5Vientos homered to left (393 feet).0–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging0–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 4Martinez singled to center, Nimmo scored.0–1
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 20–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 52%
- ML MIN +100 / NYM -120
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- NYM: Elo 53.5%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.2 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1525 | 1511 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −18 | +2 | MIN: David Festa: team allows 0.89 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.12 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +24 Elo | NYM 53.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 52.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.623rd of 30 |
| 11th of 30+0.4 | Margin | +0.313th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 10th of 3029–26 | Road vs home | 29–2716th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–55 | 49–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 22–35 |
| Underdog | 21–14 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–51 | 56–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–2 NYM in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.