Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Willi CastroBatting3-4
- Bailey OberPitching8.0 IP, 0 ER, 11 K
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-3
- Kenta MaedaPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers singled to left, Castro scored, Lewis to second, Martin to third.5–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–0
- 9Martin doubled to center, Vázquez scored, Castro to third.4–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 14–0
- 7Wallner doubled to left, Castro scored.3–0
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 3Santana hit sacrifice fly to right, Martin scored.2–0
- 3Pitch 8 : Ball In Play2–0
- 3Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball 32–0
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Lee hit sacrifice fly to center, Margot scored, Kepler to second.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 57%
- ML MIN -150 / DET +125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.0 pts
- MIN: Elo 56.4%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- MIN -135
- DET +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.1 – 3.4 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −27 | MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Alex Faedo: team allows 1.34 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +45 Elo | MIN 56.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 54.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.316th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 9th of 3028–25 | Road vs home | 25–2519th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–54 | 54–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 40–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–50 | 59–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–14 DET in their last 25 meetings; the forecast called 13 of 25.