Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joey WentzPitching2.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Xzavion CurryPitching4.1 IP, 2 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7McKinstry scored on pickoff error by pitcher Gaddis.4–5
- 7McKinstry scored on pickoff error by pitcher Gaddis.4–5
- 7Rogers hit sacrifice fly to right, Urshela scored, McKinstry to third.3–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 6Ramírez singled to right, Schneemann scored, Ramírez to second.2–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 22–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Martínez hit sacrifice fly to center, Freeman scored.2–4
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–4
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–4
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging2–4
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–4
- 5Ramírez homered to left (363 feet).2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul2–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging2–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–3
- 4Noel homered to left (387 feet).2–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 4Pérez homered to right center (390 feet), Canha scored.2–1
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 3Kwan homered to right (369 feet).0–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML DET +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- CLE: Elo 53.1%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 4.0 – 4.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1513 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −3 | −16 | DET: Tyler Holton: team allows 0.17 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) · CLE: Xzavion Curry: team allows 0.82 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +22 Elo | CLE 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 54.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 54.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.79th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.87th of 30 |
| 3rd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–727th of 30 |
| 14th of 3026–27 | Road vs home | 31–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–50 | 53–46 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–30 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 57–44 | 50–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–7 CLE in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 21.