Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting1-3, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.1 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching6.2 IP, 4 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 6Clement singled to center, Turner scored, Varsho to third.4–5
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–5
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 24–5
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Horwitz singled to center, Springer scored.4–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–4
- 5Malloy homered to center (404 feet), McKinstry scored, Pérez scored and Keith scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 3Springer homered to left center (392 feet), Clement scored.0–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 10–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–3
- 1Springer homered to left center (404 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball 30–1
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 61%
- ML DET +145 / TOR -175
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 55%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −6.8 pts
- TOR: Elo 54.1%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- TOR -156
- DET +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.8 – 4.7 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −8 | +6 | DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.38 more runs than with its usual starter (≈3 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +29 Elo | TOR 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 55.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.725th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.726th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 15th of 3025–26 | Road vs home | 21–2627th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–50 | 48–50 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 13–30 | 21–30 |
| Underdog | 36–20 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 55–44 | 52–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 7–5 TOR in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 12.