Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Wenceel PerezBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Chris BassittPitching6.2 IP, 5 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 8Springer homered to left (347 feet), Kiermaier scored.5–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 25–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul5–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 15–4
- 7Pérez homered to right center (374 feet), Urshela scored.5–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play5–2
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to left (445 feet), Horwitz scored.3–2
- 6Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–2
- 6Pitch 8 : Ball 33–2
- 6Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 23–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 13–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–2
- 4Canha homered to left center (384 feet), Greene scored.3–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Greene singled to right, Vierling scored.1–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 55%
- ML DET +115 / TOR -135
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 52.6%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- TOR -124
- DET +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 4.0 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1491 | 1495 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +5 | +1 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Chris Bassitt: team allows 0.05 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +18 Elo | TOR 52.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.4% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 50.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.624th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 21–2425th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–50 | 48–48 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–30 | 21–28 |
| Underdog | 34–20 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–44 | 50–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 5–5 TOR in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 10.