Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Spencer HorwitzBatting2-4
- Jose BerriosPitching4.0 IP, 5 ER, 0 K
Diamondbacks- Corbin CarrollBatting2-4, 2 HR, 6 RBI
- Yilber DiazPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 8Carroll homered to right center (376 feet), Thomas scored.1–12
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–12
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 31–10
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 21–10
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking1–10
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 11–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–10
- 8Suárez homered to left center (435 feet), Perdomo scored.1–10
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 7Carroll homered to left (371 feet), Thomas scored and Herrera scored.1–8
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–8
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–5
- 4Gurriel Jr. reached on infield single to first, Carroll scored, Walker to second, Marte to third.1–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–4
- 4Marte singled to right, Herrera scored, Carroll to third.1–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 2Carroll hit sacrifice fly to right, Suárez scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 2Herrera singled to right, Perdomo scored, Suárez to third.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Kirk hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored.1–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 1Pederson doubled to right, Marte scored.0–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 56%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 56%
- ML TOR +115 / ARI -140
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 54%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.0 pts
- ARI: Elo 52.7%, market 55.6%
- Fair odds
- ARI -125
- TOR +125 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.0 – 4.5 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1497 | 1505 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +8 | +1 | TOR: Jose Berrios: team allows 0.39 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Yilber Diaz: team allows 0.04 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +19 Elo | ARI 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 54.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 53.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 55.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–27 | Road vs home | 25–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–47 | 48–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 18–24 |
| Underdog | 26–19 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders | 48–45–1 | 51–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–1 ARI in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 4.