Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- George SpringerBatting2-4
- Yariel RodriguezPitching4.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Diamondbacks- Alek ThomasBatting1-3, 2 RBI
- Ryne NelsonPitching7.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Perdomo hit sacrifice fly to left, Carroll scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–5
- 8Thomas singled to left, Perdomo scored and Suárez scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 8Guerrero Jr. hit sacrifice fly to right, Jimenez scored, Springer to third.4–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Clement hit sacrifice fly to center, Varsho scored.3–2
- 7Pitch 9 : Ball In Play3–2
- 7Pitch 8 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball 22–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–2
- 6Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Springer scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 5Kiermaier grounded out to second, Kirk scored, Clement to third.1–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 4Newman hit sacrifice fly to right, Grichuk scored.0–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–1
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 10–1
- 3Carroll singled to right, Newman scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 20–0
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 53%
- ML TOR +105 / ARI -125
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.2 pts
- ARI: Elo 51.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- ARI -114
- TOR +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 4.1 – 4.4 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1498 | 1504 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +9 | −7 | TOR: Yariel Rodriguez: team allows 0.47 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈6 weighted starts) · ARI: Ryne Nelson: team allows 0.33 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +8 Elo | ARI 51.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 52.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 52.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 24th of 30−0.6 | Margin | +0.116th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 17th of 3023–26 | Road vs home | 24–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–47 | 48–46 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 18–23 |
| Underdog | 25–19 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders | 47–45–1 | 50–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–0 ARI in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 3.