Toronto Blue Jays at Arizona Diamondbacks, MLB forecast
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Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors ARI.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Blue Jays- Kevin KiermaierBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching4.2 IP, 7 ER, 6 K
Diamondbacks- Ketel MarteBatting3-5, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Zac GallenPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 1 K
Scoring summary
- 7Guerrero Jr. homered to center (438 feet).8–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 5Suárez singled to left, Grichuk scored and Gurriel Jr. scored, McCarthy to third.7–7
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–7
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Grichuk singled to right, Moreno scored, Gurriel Jr. to third.7–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–4
- 5Marte homered to center (443 feet), McCarthy scored, Suárez scored and Perdomo scored.7–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–4
- 4Kiermaier homered to right center (395 feet), Varsho scored, Clement scored and Jimenez scored.7–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–0
- 4Clement singled to left, Jansen scored on error, Clement to second, Varsho safe at third on throwing error by left fielder Gurriel Jr..3–0
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 33–0
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 23–0
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 13–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–0
- 4Varsho singled to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Jansen to third.2–0
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Varsho scored on error, Clement safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Perdomo.1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Diamondbacks 58%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- ARI 58%
- ML TOR +130 / ARI -155
- Pre-line forecast
- ARI 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- ARI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- ARI: Elo 59.9%, market 58.3%
- Fair odds
- ARI -140
- TOR +140 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TOR 3.4 – 4.1 ARI
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TOR | ARI | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1493 | 1508 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −25 | +12 | TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.27 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · ARI: Zac Gallen: team allows 0.59 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | ARI +70 Elo | ARI 59.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | ARI 59.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | ARI 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | ARI 58.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TOR | Stat | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| 24th of 304.0 | Runs scored | 4.93rd of 30 |
| 23rd of 304.7 | Runs allowed | 4.825th of 30 |
| 25th of 30−0.7 | Margin | +0.214th of 30 |
| 20th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 19th of 3023–28 | Road vs home | 26–2316th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TOR |  ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–48 | 49–47 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 21–28 | 19–24 |
| Underdog | 26–20 | 30–23 |
| Overs–unders | 49–45–1 | 52–43–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TOR 3–2 ARI in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 5.