Detroit Tigers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Jake RogersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Reese OlsonPitching2.0 IP, 0 ER, 0 K
Blue Jays- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.Batting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Yusei KikuchiPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 6Guerrero Jr. homered to center (418 feet), Horwitz scored.7–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play7–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 6Springer singled to left, Kiermaier scored.7–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 6Ibáñez scored on Little wild pitch, Vierling to second on wild pitch by Little, Malloy to third on wild pitch by Little.7–0
- 6Ibáñez scored on Little wild pitch, Vierling to second on wild pitch by Little, Malloy to third on wild pitch by Little.7–0
- 6Ibáñez singled to left, Báez scored, Urshela to second.6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Rogers homered to left (391 feet), Vierling scored, Canha scored and Pérez scored.5–0
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play5–0
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul5–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 5Ibáñez doubled to left, Vilade scored on error, Ibáñez safe at third on fielding error by left fielder Varsho.1–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML DET +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 50%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.7 pts
- TOR: Elo 49.6%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- DET +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.6 – 3.9 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1492 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | −24 | DET: Reese Olson: team allows 0.07 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Yusei Kikuchi: team allows 1.19 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +3 Elo | DET 50.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 18th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.125th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 18th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −0.725th of 30 |
| 1st of 308–2 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 17th of 3024–26 | Road vs home | 21–2526th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–50 | 48–49 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 13–30 | 21–29 |
| Underdog | 35–20 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 54–44 | 51–45–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 6–5 TOR in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 11.