Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Justyn-Henry MalloyBatting1-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Jose RamirezBatting2-5, 1 RBI
- Carlos CarrascoPitching5.1 IP, 6 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Ramírez grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Hedges scored, Martínez out at second, Kwan to third.8–2
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play8–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 9Keith homered to right (377 feet).8–1
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–1
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 28–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 18–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–1
- 8Urshela hit sacrifice fly to right, Pérez scored.7–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 17–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging7–1
- 6Urshela hit sacrifice fly to left, Pérez scored.6–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 16–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul6–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–1
- 6Pérez doubled to center, Canha scored, Pérez to third.5–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 35–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 25–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 2Hedges reached on bunt single to third, Fry scored, Freeman to second, Noel to third.4–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–1
- 2Rogers tripled to center, Rogers scored on throwing error by center fielder Martínez and Pérez scored.4–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 24–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 14–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul4–0
- 1Malloy homered to left (392 feet), Vierling scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Tigers 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- DET 55%
- ML DET -135 / CLE +115
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 47%
- Ratings vs. market
- −8.0 pts
- DET: Elo 47.3%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- DET -124
- CLE +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.5 – 3.0 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1494 | 1516 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +17 | −5 | DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.83 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Carlos Carrasco: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +19 Elo | CLE 52.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 53.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | DET 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 18th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.95th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–728th of 30 |
| 16th of 3025–27 | Road vs home | 31–132nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–50 | 53–45 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 13–30 | 26–32 |
| Underdog | 37–20 | 27–13 |
| Overs–unders | 56–44 | 49–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 13–7 CLE in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 10 of 20.