Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Ranger SuarezPitching5.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Manuel MargotBatting2-5, 2 RBI
- Bailey OberPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Julien scored on Marte wild pitch, Castro to second on wild pitch by Marte, Jeffers to third on wild pitch by Marte.2–7
- 8Julien scored on Marte wild pitch, Castro to second on wild pitch by Marte, Jeffers to third on wild pitch by Marte.2–7
- 8Castro walked, Kepler scored, Jeffers to second, Julien to third.2–6
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 42–6
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 32–6
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–6
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging2–6
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 12–6
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–6
- 8Kepler singled to right, Martin scored.2–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 22–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 7Santana doubled to right, Jeffers scored.2–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–4
- 5Margot singled to right, Kepler scored and Castillo scored.2–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–3
- 3Castro singled to center, Castillo scored, Jeffers to second.2–1
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 32–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–1
- 1Harper homered to right (424 feet), Turner scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul2–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 52%
- ML PHI -120 / MIN +100
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.4%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -109
- MIN +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1525 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +1 | +4 | PHI: Ranger Suarez: team allows 0.06 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Bailey Ober: team allows 0.18 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +10 Elo | PHI 51.4% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 52.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.97th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 10th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–510th of 30 |
| 4th of 3025–20 | Road vs home | 27–209th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–48 | 45–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 41–39 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 44–54–1 | 49–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–2 MIN in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.