Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Weston WilsonBatting3-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching5.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting3-5, 3 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching3.2 IP, 6 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9N. Gonzales singled to left, McCutchen scored, Cruz to second.7–8
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–8
- 9Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to second, Taylor scored, McCutchen third.7–7
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–7
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 27–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 17–7
- 7Tellez sacrificed into double play, left to second, Reynolds scored, Cruz thrown out at second.7–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play7–6
- 7Cruz reached on infield single to second, McCutchen scored, Reynolds to third.7–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play7–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–5
- 5Schwarber hit sacrifice fly to right, Sosa scored, Stubbs to second, Wilson to third.7–4
- 5Pitch 7 : Ball In Play7–4
- 5Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 37–4
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul7–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–4
- 4Turner homered to left (388 feet), Pache scored.6–4
- 4Pitch 6 : Ball In Play6–4
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 4Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–4
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking6–4
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 26–4
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–4
- 3Tellez hit sacrifice fly to right, Cruz scored.4–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 3Wilson homered to left center (384 feet).4–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 14–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 1Tellez hit sacrifice fly to left, Cruz scored.3–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 61%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 61%
- ML PHI -175 / PIT +145
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 62%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 60%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 60.2%, market 60.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -156
- PIT +156 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1556 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −17 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 0.84 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +72 Elo | PHI 60.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 62.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 61.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 60.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 3rd of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.220th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.314th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–18 | Road vs home | 22–2422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–46 | 48–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–37 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 35–19 |
| Overs–unders | 43–52–1 | 46–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–5 PIT in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.