Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Ke'Bryan HayesBatting2-4, 1 RBI
- Marco GonzalesPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
White Sox- Luis Robert Jr.Batting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jonathan CannonPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 6Hayes singled to center, N. Gonzales scored.4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 23–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 6N. Gonzales doubled to center, Joe scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 5Taylor hit sacrifice fly to left, Bart scored.2–1
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 31–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 11–1
- 5Triolo singled to center, Hayes scored, Bart to second.1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 3Robert Jr. singled to center, Pham scored.0–1
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play0–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
White Sox 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CHW 60%
- ML PIT +140 / CHW -165
- Pre-line forecast
- CHW 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHW 44%
- Ratings vs. market
- −15.9 pts
- CHW: Elo 44.0%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- CHW -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 3.3 – 4.2 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1412 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +18 | PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) · CHW: Garrett Crochet: team allows 0.90 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈9 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +42 Elo | PIT 56.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHW 54.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHW 52.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHW 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.027th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.729th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 14th of 3023–24 | Road vs home | 17–3130th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–46 | 47–48 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 6–2 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 41–46 |
| Overs–unders | 45–46 | 44–50–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 2–1 CHW in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.