Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Bryan ReynoldsBatting4-5, 4 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching5.2 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
White Sox- Tommy PhamBatting2-3
- Chris FlexenPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Cruz hit sacrifice fly to left, Bart scored, Reynolds to second.6–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–2
- 9Reynolds singled to right, Grandal scored and Joe scored, Bart to third.5–2
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–2
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 8Jiménez grounded out to third, Pham scored.3–2
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul3–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–1
- 7Reynolds singled to right, Hayes scored and Joe scored, McCutchen to second.3–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Robert Jr. singled to center, Pham scored.1–1
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball 21–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 11–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Cruz grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, McCutchen scored, Reynolds out at second.1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking0–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 57%
- ML PIT -145 / CHW +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 62%
- Ratings vs. market
- +5.1 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PIT -130
- CHW +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.5 – 4.0 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1485 | 1411 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −20 | PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.29 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · CHW: Chris Flexen: team allows 1.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +82 Elo | PIT 61.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.3% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.2 | Margin | −1.829th of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 11th of 3024–24 | Road vs home | 17–3230th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–46 | 47–49 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 11–27 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 35–19 | 41–46 |
| Overs–unders | 45–47 | 44–51–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 3–1 CHW in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 4.