Pittsburgh Pirates at Chicago White Sox, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHW.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Pirates- Joey BartBatting1-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Mitch KellerPitching3.0 IP, 2 ER, 3 K
White Sox- Andrew BenintendiBatting3-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Chad KuhlPitching4.0 IP, 4 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8Reynolds homered to right center (392 feet).9–4
- 8Pitch 8 : Ball In Play9–4
- 8Pitch 7 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul9–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 39–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 29–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging9–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 19–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–4
- 7Jiménez singled to left, Benintendi scored, Robert Jr. to second.8–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 7Palacios doubled to right, Hayes scored.8–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–3
- 7Tellez hit sacrifice fly to center, N. Gonzales scored.7–3
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play7–3
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 7N. Gonzales tripled to left, Reynolds scored and Cruz scored.6–3
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–3
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 16–3
- 5Sheets singled to right, Benintendi scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 4Bart homered to left center (416 feet), Hayes scored and Palacios scored.4–2
- 4Pitch 7 : Ball In Play4–2
- 4Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul4–2
- 4Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking4–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball 34–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 24–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 3Benintendi homered to right (386 feet).1–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 3Cruz doubled to right, Reynolds scored.1–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 1Jiménez grounded into double play, shortstop to first, Pham scored, Robert Jr. out at second, Benintendi to third.0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 60%
- ML PIT -165 / CHW +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 61%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.3 pts
- PIT: Elo 61.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PIT -149
- CHW +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PIT 4.7 – 3.8 CHW
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PIT | CHW | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1409 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +12 | −7 | PIT: Mitch Keller: team allows 0.61 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHW: Jared Shuster: team allows 0.36 more runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +79 Elo | PIT 61.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 57.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PIT | Stat | CHW |
|---|---|---|
| 23rd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 3.230th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 5.028th of 30 |
| 20th of 30−0.1 | Margin | −1.830th of 30 |
| 7th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 3–726th of 30 |
| 10th of 3025–24 | Road vs home | 17–3330th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PIT |  CHW |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–46 | 47–50 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 12–27 | 6–3 |
| Underdog | 35–19 | 41–47 |
| Overs–unders | 45–48 | 44–52–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PIT 4–1 CHW in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 5.