Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Jackson ChourioBatting3-5, 2 RBI
- Freddy PeraltaPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 8 K
Twins- Carlos SantanaBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 12Castillo singled to center, Margot scored.8–4
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–4
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–4
- 12Contreras singled to center, Turang scored.8–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play8–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul8–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging8–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging8–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 18–3
- 12Turang singled to right, Bauers scored and Chourio scored, Turang to second.7–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking7–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 37–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 27–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 17–3
- 12Chourio singled to center, Perkins scored, Bauers to third.5–3
- 12Pitch 5 : Ball In Play5–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball 25–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Ball 15–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking5–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–3
- 12Ortiz hit sacrifice fly to center, Frelick scored, Perkins to third.4–3
- 12Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–3
- 12Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul4–3
- 12Pitch 2 : Ball 24–3
- 12Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 11Santana homered to right (391 feet), Lee scored.3–3
- 11Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–3
- 11Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 23–3
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 13–3
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 11Yelich sacrificed to pitcher, Turang scored, Contreras to second.3–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 11Turang grounded into fielder's choice to second, Ortiz scored.2–1
- 11Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–1
- 11Pitch 3 : Ball 22–1
- 11Pitch 2 : Ball 12–1
- 11Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 8Castillo grounded into fielder's choice to second, Castro scored.1–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 53%
- ML MIL +105 / MIN -125
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.3 pts
- MIN: Elo 49.0%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -114
- MIL +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.6 – 3.9 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1538 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | −6 | MIL: Freddy Peralta: team allows 0.49 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.32 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIL +7 Elo | MIL 51.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIL 50.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIL 50.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.417th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 28th of 303–7 | Last 10 | 6–46th of 30 |
| 11th of 3026–25 | Road vs home | 27–188th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–42 | 45–51 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 26–39 |
| Underdog | 30–14 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 54–42 | 47–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 3–3 MIN in their last 6 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 6.