Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Tyler PhillipsPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Joey BartBatting2-3
- Marco GonzalesPitching4.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos homered to left (409 feet).6–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play6–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 16–0
- 7Bohm singled to left, Turner scored.5–0
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–0
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 25–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–0
- 7Harper grounded out to second, Schwarber scored, Turner to second.4–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play4–0
- 7Turner singled to right, Stubbs scored, Schwarber to third.3–0
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Stubbs singled to right, Sosa scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Wilson hit sacrifice fly to center, Bohm scored, Sosa to third.1–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 53%
- ML PHI -125 / PIT +105
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.1 pts
- PHI: Elo 53.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- PHI -114
- PIT +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.9 – 4.6 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1492 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | +10 | PHI: Tyler Phillips: team allows 0.54 more runs than with its usual starter (≈1 weighted starts) · PIT: Marco Gonzales: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +22 Elo | PHI 53.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 57.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 56.4% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.119th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 5th of 3024–20 | Road vs home | 24–2418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–48 | 50–46 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 8–2 |
| Favorite | 40–39 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 37–19 |
| Overs–unders | 44–53–1 | 47–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–7 PIT in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 12.