Philadelphia Phillies at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Bryce HarperBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Cristopher SanchezPitching5.2 IP, 2 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Oneil CruzBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Luis OrtizPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Harper homered to right center (428 feet).1–4
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–4
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 21–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 11–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–4
- 8Cruz homered to center (422 feet), Reynolds scored.0–4
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play0–4
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 20–4
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul0–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 10–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 6Cruz doubled to right, N. Gonzales scored.0–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–2
- 6McCutchen homered to center (431 feet).0–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 30–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 20–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 60%
- ML PHI -165 / PIT +140
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 55%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.7 pts
- PHI: Elo 55.2%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- PHI -149
- PIT +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.7 – 3.8 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1555 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −2 | +8 | PHI: Cristopher Sanchez: team allows 0.11 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Luis Ortiz: team allows 0.42 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +36 Elo | PHI 55.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 58.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 1st of 305.0 | Runs scored | 4.219th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.315th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 4th of 3024–19 | Road vs home | 23–2422nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–47 | 49–46 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 40–38 | 13–27 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 36–19 |
| Overs–unders | 44–52–1 | 47–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 5–6 PIT in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.