Milwaukee Brewers at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Brewers- Eric HaaseBatting3-4, 2 HR, 3 RBI
- Aaron CivalePitching4.1 IP, 3 ER, 4 K
Twins- Byron BuxtonBatting2-5, 2 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 4 ER, 6 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee grounded out to pitcher, Kepler scored.8–7
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–7
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–7
- 9Buxton homered to left (386 feet).8–6
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–6
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–6
- 9Haase homered to center (432 feet).8–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–5
- 8Hoskins homered to left center (384 feet), Frelick scored.7–5
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–5
- 8Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul7–5
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging7–5
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking7–5
- 7Chourio homered to left center (443 feet).5–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 15–5
- 5Larnach homered to right center (378 feet), Castro scored.4–5
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 5Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 24–5
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking4–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–5
- 5Haase singled to center, Chourio scored.4–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 24–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–3
- 5Chourio doubled to center, Mitchell scored and Ortiz scored.3–3
- 5Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–3
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball 23–3
- 5Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul3–3
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 13–3
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–3
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–3
- 3Buxton homered to center (411 feet).1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 21–3
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 60%
- ML MIL +140 / MIN -165
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 53%
- Ratings vs. market
- −7.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 52.8%, market 59.9%
- Fair odds
- MIN -149
- MIL +149 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIL 3.3 – 4.2 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIL | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1540 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −10 | +5 | MIL: Aaron Civale: team allows 0.52 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.25 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +20 Elo | MIN 52.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 58.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 59.9% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIL | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 7th of 304.0 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 6th of 30+0.8 | Margin | +0.410th of 30 |
| 18th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 10th of 3027–25 | Road vs home | 27–198th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIL |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 55–42 | 45–52 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 24–28 | 26–40 |
| Underdog | 31–14 | 19–12 |
| Overs–unders | 55–42 | 48–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIL 4–3 MIN in their last 7 meetings; the forecast called 6 of 7.