Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Christian VazquezBatting3-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Tigers- Javier BaezBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Keider MonteroPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Lee walked, Kepler scored, Wallner to second, Santana to third.9–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 49–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Ball 39–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 29–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 19–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul9–3
- 8Madris singled to center, Canha scored, Vierling to third.8–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play8–3
- 6Vázquez homered to left (353 feet), Lee scored.8–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play8–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul8–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–2
- 4Buxton doubled to left, Castro scored.6–2
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play6–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 26–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 16–2
- 4Castro singled to left, Wallner scored on error and Vázquez scored on error, Castro safe at third on throwing error by second baseman Keith.5–2
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–2
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 15–2
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–2
- 3Báez homered to left center (390 feet), Kelly scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 13–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul3–2
- 2Wallner homered to right (376 feet).3–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging3–0
- 1Larnach homered to right center (375 feet).2–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play2–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 32–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Ball 22–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 12–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 1Buxton homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 62%
- ML MIN -185 / DET +155
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −11.1 pts
- MIN: Elo 51.2%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- MIN -166
- DET +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 3.2 DET
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1527 | 1497 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −11 | −8 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.57 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Keider Montero: team allows 0.41 more runs than with its usual starter (≈4 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +8 Elo | MIN 51.2% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 57.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 57.0% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.215th of 30 |
| 10th of 30+0.4 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 19th of 304–6 | Last 10 | 6–48th of 30 |
| 9th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 24–2418th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 47–54 | 54–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 26–41 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 40–20 |
| Overs–unders | 51–50 | 58–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 10–13 DET in their last 23 meetings; the forecast called 11 of 23.