Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Trea TurnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Aaron NolaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting1-2, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- David FestaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 9Kepler reached on infield single to second, Larnach scored.4–5
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play4–5
- 9Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul4–5
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Swinging4–5
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 24–5
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 14–5
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–5
- 7Santana doubled to left, Kepler scored and Larnach scored.4–4
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–4
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 24–4
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 14–4
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–4
- 7Kepler grounded into fielder's choice to first, Castro scored, Buxton out at second, Larnach to third.4–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 7Castellanos singled to right, Marsh scored.4–1
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–1
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Swinging4–1
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking4–1
- 6Schwarber singled to center, Castellanos scored and Stubbs scored.3–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–1
- 5Turner homered to left center (425 feet).1–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–1
- 2Wallner homered to right center (441 feet).0–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 55%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 55%
- ML PHI -135 / MIN +115
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 52%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.6 pts
- PHI: Elo 51.7%, market 55.3%
- Fair odds
- PHI -124
- MIN +124 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1554 | 1526 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | 0 | −1 | PHI: Aaron Nola: team allows 0.00 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Steven Okert: team allows 0.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈2 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +12 Elo | PHI 51.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 53.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 52.9% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 55.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 5th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.86th of 30 |
| 3rd of 303.8 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.49th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–620th of 30 |
| 4th of 3026–21 | Road vs home | 28–219th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–49 | 46–54 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 42–40 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 20–13 |
| Overs–unders | 45–55–1 | 50–50 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 2–3 MIN in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 5.