Philadelphia Phillies at Minnesota Twins, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors MIN.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Phillies- Nick CastellanosBatting1-4, 2 RBI
- Zack WheelerPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 7 K
Twins- Max KeplerBatting1-3
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Castellanos doubled to right, Realmuto scored and Bohm scored.3–0
- 9Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–0
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball 33–0
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking3–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 23–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 13–0
- 9Marsh hit sacrifice fly to left, Harper scored.1–0
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Phillies 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- PHI 57%
- ML PHI -145 / MIN +120
- Pre-line forecast
- PHI 57%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PHI 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PHI: Elo 50.6%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- PHI -130
- MIN +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- PHI 4.0 – 3.5 MIN
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | PHI | MIN | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1552 | 1528 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +10 | PHI: Zack Wheeler: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.48 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PHI +4 Elo | PHI 50.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PHI 58.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PHI 57.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PHI 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| PHI | Stat | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| 4th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.96th of 30 |
| 4th of 303.9 | Runs allowed | 4.418th of 30 |
| 1st of 30+1.1 | Margin | +0.510th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 5th of 3025–21 | Road vs home | 28–208th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  PHI |  MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 46–53 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 41–40 | 26–41 |
| Underdog | 10–9 | 20–12 |
| Overs–unders | 45–54–1 | 50–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
PHI 1–3 MIN in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 4.