Detroit Tigers at Cleveland Guardians, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CLE.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Tigers- Matt VierlingBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Jack FlahertyPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 6 K
Guardians- Steven KwanBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Tanner BibeePitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 8J. Naylor singled to center, Bo Naylor scored, Ramírez to third.1–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 31–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 21–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 11–2
- 5Kwan singled to center, Bo Naylor scored.1–1
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball 21–1
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Vierling homered to right (351 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Guardians 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- CLE 57%
- ML DET +120 / CLE -145
- Pre-line forecast
- CLE 59%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CLE 57%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.4 pts
- CLE: Elo 57.0%, market 56.6%
- Fair odds
- CLE -130
- DET +130 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- DET 3.0 – 3.5 CLE
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 6.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | DET | CLE | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1496 | 1514 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +4 | +16 | DET: Jack Flaherty: team allows 0.20 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CLE: Tanner Bibee: team allows 0.82 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CLE +49 Elo | CLE 57.0% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CLE 59.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CLE 59.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CLE 56.6% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| DET | Stat | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.710th of 30 |
| 15th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 3.95th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | +0.86th of 30 |
| 2nd of 307–3 | Last 10 | 3–725th of 30 |
| 17th of 3026–28 | Road vs home | 32–142nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  DET |  CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 52–50 | 53–47 |
| Last 10 | 9–1 | 2–8 |
| Favorite | 14–30 | 26–33 |
| Underdog | 38–20 | 27–14 |
| Overs–unders | 58–44 | 51–47–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 8–2 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
DET 14–8 CLE in their last 22 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 22.