Minnesota Twins at Detroit Tigers, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors DET.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Royce LewisBatting2-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Joe RyanPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Tigers- Colt KeithBatting2-4, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Tarik SkubalPitching7.0 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 7Keith homered to right (419 feet), Vierling scored.2–7
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play2–7
- 7Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking2–7
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 32–7
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 22–7
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–7
- 7Báez homered to left center (372 feet), Madris scored.2–5
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–5
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul2–5
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 6Canha hit sacrifice fly to center, Keith scored.2–3
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play2–3
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 22–3
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 12–3
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–3
- 6Keith tripled to second, Vierling scored.2–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–2
- 1Canha singled to center, Vierling scored.2–1
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–1
- 1Lewis homered to left center (402 feet), Margot scored.2–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point.
Tigers 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- No line yet
- Pre-line forecast
- DET 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- DET 50%
- Fair odds
- DET -100
- MIN +100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.7 – 4.7 DET
- Margin from the forecast, total from team scoring ratings
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | DET | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1530 | 1494 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −1 | +18 | MIN: Joe Ryan: team allows 0.03 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · DET: Tarik Skubal: team allows 0.88 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | DET +1 Elo | DET 50.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | DET 50.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | DET 50.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | DET |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.318th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.316th of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | 0.018th of 30 |
| 14th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–45th of 30 |
| 8th of 3028–24 | Road vs home | 24–2523rd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  DET |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 48–54 | 54–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 9–1 |
| Favorite | 27–41 | 14–30 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 40–21 |
| Overs–unders | 52–50 | 59–46 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 7–3 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 11–13 DET in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.