Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Ryan JeffersBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Simeon Woods RichardsonPitching3.1 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jose QuintanaPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 5 K
Scoring summary
- 9Jeffers homered to left (394 feet).2–15
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–15
- 7Torrens doubled to left, McNeil scored and Taylor scored.1–15
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–15
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 31–15
- 7Pitch 3 : Ball 21–15
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking1–15
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–15
- 7McNeil doubled to right, Alonso scored, Taylor to third.1–13
- 7Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–13
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball 21–13
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul1–13
- 7Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–13
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–13
- 7Alonso doubled to center, Gamel scored.1–12
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–12
- 7Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–12
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–12
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 21–12
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball 11–12
- 6Bader hit by pitch, Taylor scored, Torrens to second, Vientos to third.1–11
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–11
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–11
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–11
- 6McNeil hit sacrifice fly to right, Alonso scored.1–10
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–10
- 6Vientos walked, Martinez scored, Taylor to second, Alonso to third.1–9
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball 41–9
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–9
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking1–9
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 31–9
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 21–9
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 11–9
- 6Martinez grounded into fielder's choice to second, Lindor scored, Nimmo out at second.1–8
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–8
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–8
- 6Nimmo singled to right, Bader scored, Lindor to third.1–7
- 6Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–7
- 6Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–7
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 50%
- ML MIN -110 / NYM -110
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −0.8 pts
- NYM: Elo 49.2%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- NYM -100
- MIN -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.3 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1529 | 1507 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +10 | +9 | MIN: Simeon Woods Richardson: team allows 0.50 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · NYM: Jose Quintana: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | MIN +5 Elo | MIN 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 52.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 51.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 6th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.87th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.723rd of 30 |
| 9th of 30+0.5 | Margin | +0.216th of 30 |
| 12th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 6–44th of 30 |
| 8th of 3029–25 | Road vs home | 28–2717th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–54 | 48–55 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 21–35 |
| Underdog | 21–13 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 52–51 | 55–48 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–1 NYM in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 2 of 3.