Minnesota Twins at New York Mets, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors NYM.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Twins- Matt WallnerBatting2-5, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Pablo LopezPitching6.0 IP, 2 ER, 7 K
Mets- Mark VientosBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Luis SeverinoPitching3.0 IP, 6 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 9Alvarez grounded out to second, Torrens scored, Iglesias to third.8–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball In Play8–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking8–3
- 8Jeffers grounded into fielder's choice to shortstop, Buxton scored, Santana out at second.8–2
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball In Play8–2
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball 38–2
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 28–2
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking8–2
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 18–2
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul8–2
- 5Santana doubled to left, Wallner scored.7–2
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play7–2
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 37–2
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking7–2
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 27–2
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 17–2
- 3Wallner homered to center (442 feet), Lewis scored.6–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play6–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul6–2
- 3Lewis doubled to left, Kepler scored.4–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball In Play4–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 24–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul4–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 14–2
- 3Kepler singled to right, Larnach scored.3–2
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play3–2
- 3Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–2
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 23–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking3–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–2
- 3Larnach singled to left, Martin scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 12–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking2–2
- 2Vientos homered to right (364 feet), McNeil scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 2Buxton homered to left center (435 feet).1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Twins 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- MIN 52%
- ML MIN -120 / NYM +100
- Pre-line forecast
- MIN 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- MIN 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.5 pts
- MIN: Elo 48.7%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- MIN -109
- NYM +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- MIN 4.3 – 4.2 NYM
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | MIN | NYM | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1524 | 1512 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | −5 | MIN: Pablo Lopez: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · NYM: Luis Severino: team allows 0.26 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +9 Elo | NYM 51.3% | |
| Market-implied ratings | MIN 52.9% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | MIN 52.3% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | MIN 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| MIN | Stat | NYM |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.95th of 30 |
| 17th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.621st of 30 |
| 12th of 30+0.3 | Margin | +0.314th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 7–32nd of 30 |
| 11th of 3029–27 | Road vs home | 30–2715th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  MIN |  NYM |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 49–56 | 50–55 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 7–3 |
| Favorite | 28–41 | 23–35 |
| Underdog | 21–15 | 27–20 |
| Overs–unders | 53–52 | 56–49 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
MIN 2–3 NYM in their last 5 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 5.