New York Mets at Los Angeles Angels, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors LAA.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Pete AlonsoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Paul BlackburnPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 6 K
Angels- Nolan SchanuelBatting2-4
- Tyler AndersonPitching5.0 IP, 3 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 6Lindor scored on error, Vientos safe at first on fielding error by shortstop Neto, Martinez to second.5–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 15–1
- 6Martinez singled to right, Bader scored, Lindor to third.4–1
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play4–1
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball 24–1
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball 14–1
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul4–1
- 6Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging4–1
- 3Alonso homered to left (421 feet), Nimmo scored.3–1
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball In Play3–1
- 2Adell singled to left, Moniak scored, Neto to third.1–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 11–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 2Alvarez singled to left, Iglesias scored.1–0
- 2Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–0
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 2Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Swinging1–0
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 31–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Mets 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- NYM 53%
- ML NYM -125 / LAA +105
- Pre-line forecast
- NYM 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- NYM 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +0.9 pts
- NYM: Elo 54.1%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- NYM -114
- LAA +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.9 – 4.6 LAA
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 9.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | LAA | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1510 | 1456 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +2 | +9 | NYM: Paul Blackburn: team allows 0.08 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · LAA: Tyler Anderson: team allows 0.46 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +29 Elo | NYM 54.1% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 55.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 55.6% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | NYM 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| 7th of 304.9 | Runs scored | 4.026th of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.927th of 30 |
| 15th of 30+0.2 | Margin | −0.927th of 30 |
| 4th of 307–3 | Last 10 | 5–512th of 30 |
| 7th of 3026–22 | Road vs home | 24–3428th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–56 | 59–50 |
| Last 10 | 7–3 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 23–35 | 6–20 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 53–30 |
| Overs–unders | 57–49 | 55–54 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 1–2 LAA in their last 3 meetings; the forecast called 1 of 3.