New York Mets at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Mets- Jeff McNeilBatting2-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Sean ManaeaPitching7.0 IP, 0 ER, 10 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting1-4
- Andre PallantePitching4.2 IP, 5 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 6McNeil homered to right (357 feet).6–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–0
- 5Taylor doubled to right, Alvarez scored, Lindor scored and Bader scored.5–0
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball In Play5–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking5–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 15–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul5–0
- 5Bader doubled to left, McNeil scored, Alvarez to third.2–0
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–0
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking2–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 12–0
- 2Alonso scored on Pallante wild pitch, McNeil to second on wild pitch by Pallante.1–0
- 2Alonso scored on Pallante wild pitch, McNeil to second on wild pitch by Pallante.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 50%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 50%
- ML NYM -110 / STL -110
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 49%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −1.5 pts
- STL: Elo 48.5%, market 50.0%
- Fair odds
- STL -100
- NYM -100 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- NYM 4.3 – 4.3 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | NYM | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1509 | 1482 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +7 | +6 | NYM: Sean Manaea: team allows 0.37 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Andre Pallante: team allows 0.31 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | NYM +10 Elo | NYM 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | NYM 50.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | NYM 50.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 50.0% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| NYM | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 8th of 304.8 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 14th of 30+0.3 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 6th of 3027–24 | Road vs home | 28–2516th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  NYM |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–58 | 55–56 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 24–37 | 17–34 |
| Underdog | 27–21 | 38–22 |
| Overs–unders | 57–52 | 55–54–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 8–2 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
NYM 7–5 STL in their last 12 meetings; the forecast called 4 of 12.