St. Louis Cardinals at Chicago Cubs, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors CHC.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Alec BurlesonBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching7.0 IP, 4 ER, 7 K
Cubs- Michael BuschBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Jameson TaillonPitching6.0 IP, 1 ER, 4 K
Scoring summary
- 9Nootbaar hit sacrifice fly to center, Pham scored.5–4
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play5–4
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul5–4
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging5–4
- 8Arenado singled to center, Contreras scored and Donovan scored.4–4
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball In Play4–4
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging4–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 14–4
- 8Donovan reached on infield single to third, Burleson scored on throwing error by third baseman Paredes, Donovan to second, Contreras safe at third on error.2–4
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play2–4
- 2Amaya sacrificed to pitcher, Crow-Armstrong scored.1–4
- 2Crow-Armstrong tripled to right, Hoerner scored.1–3
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball 11–3
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Bunted Foul1–3
- 1Busch homered to right center (395 feet), Happ scored.1–2
- 1Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–2
- 1Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul1–2
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball 21–2
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–2
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 11–2
- 1Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–2
- 1Burleson homered to right (369 feet).1–0
- 1Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–0
- 1Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking1–0
- 1Pitch 2 : Ball 21–0
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cubs 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- CHC 51%
- ML STL -105 / CHC -115
- Pre-line forecast
- CHC 52%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- CHC 58%
- Ratings vs. market
- +6.8 pts
- CHC: Elo 57.9%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- CHC -104
- STL +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.2 – 4.3 CHC
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | CHC | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1483 | 1509 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −6 | +5 | STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.30 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · CHC: Jameson Taillon: team allows 0.26 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | CHC +55 Elo | CHC 57.9% | |
| Market-implied ratings | CHC 51.1% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | CHC 52.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | CHC 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.222nd of 30 |
| 20th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.211th of 30 |
| 22nd of 30−0.4 | Margin | 0.017th of 30 |
| 22nd of 304–6 | Last 10 | 5–511th of 30 |
| 16th of 3027–29 | Road vs home | 29–2515th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 54–55 | 55–56 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 4–6 |
| Favorite | 17–34 | 13–35 |
| Underdog | 37–21 | 42–21 |
| Overs–unders | 54–53–2 | 49–61–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 7–3 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 11–13 CHC in their last 24 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 24.