Texas Rangers at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Max ScherzerPitching4.0 IP, 3 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Tommy PhamBatting1-2, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 1 ER, 3 K
Scoring summary
- 5Pham homered to right center (405 feet), Burleson scored, Contreras scored and Goldschmidt scored.1–8
- 5Pitch 5 : Ball In Play1–8
- 5Pitch 4 : Ball 21–8
- 5Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–8
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball 11–8
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–8
- 5Burleson singled to right, Siani scored.1–4
- 5Pitch 3 : Ball In Play1–4
- 5Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul1–4
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul1–4
- 3Nootbaar doubled to right, Burleson scored.1–3
- 3Pitch 6 : Ball In Play1–3
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball 31–3
- 3Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul1–3
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 21–3
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 11–3
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging1–3
- 2Crawford doubled to right, Carpenter scored.1–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–2
- 2Langford homered to left (373 feet).1–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play1–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking1–1
- 1Winn homered to left center (416 feet).0–1
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Rangers 52%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TEX 52%
- ML TEX -120 / STL +100
- Pre-line forecast
- TEX 53%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TEX 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- +1.6 pts
- TEX: Elo 53.8%, market 52.2%
- Fair odds
- TEX -109
- STL +109 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1514 | 1479 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +6 | −3 | TEX: Max Scherzer: team allows 0.30 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.16 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TEX +26 Elo | TEX 53.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TEX 52.5% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TEX 52.7% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TEX 52.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 16th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.124th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.3 | Runs allowed | 4.620th of 30 |
| 17th of 300.0 | Margin | −0.524th of 30 |
| 8th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 25th of 3023–32 | Road vs home | 26–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 46–61 | 51–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 22–41 | 16–34 |
| Underdog | 24–20 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 46–60–1 | 50–53–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 3–1 STL in their last 4 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 4.