Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Keibert RuizBatting1-6, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Jake IrvinPitching5.1 IP, 2 ER, 5 K
Cardinals- Willson ContrerasBatting1-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Kyle GibsonPitching5.0 IP, 2 ER, 0 K
Scoring summary
- 9L. García Jr. singled to center, Ramírez scored, Wood to second.14–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play14–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 214–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 114–3
- 9Wood singled to center, Nuñez scored and Thomas scored, Ramírez to second.13–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play13–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 213–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 113–3
- 9Ramírez singled to center, Young scored, Thomas to second, Nuñez to third.11–3
- 9Pitch 5 : Ball In Play11–3
- 9Pitch 4 : Strike 1 Looking11–3
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball 311–3
- 9Pitch 2 : Ball 211–3
- 9Pitch 1 : Ball 111–3
- 8Carpenter singled to center, Winn scored, Donovan to third.10–3
- 8Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–3
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 310–3
- 8Pitch 3 : Ball 210–3
- 8Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul10–3
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball 110–3
- 7Yepez doubled to right, Abrams scored, Ramírez to third.10–2
- 7Pitch 5 : Ball In Play10–2
- 7Pitch 4 : Ball 210–2
- 7Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Looking10–2
- 7Pitch 2 : Ball 110–2
- 7Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking10–2
- 6Contreras homered to center (405 feet), Burleson scored.9–2
- 6Pitch 5 : Ball In Play9–2
- 6Pitch 4 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul9–2
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Looking9–2
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–2
- 6Ruiz homered to left center (389 feet), Yepez scored and Wood scored.9–0
- 6Pitch 4 : Ball In Play9–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking9–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 29–0
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 19–0
- 6Yepez singled to left, Thomas scored and Ramírez scored.6–0
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play6–0
- 6Pitch 2 : Ball 26–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 57%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 55–60% have won 55.5% of 2,596 graded games.
- Market
- STL 57%
- ML WSH +125 / STL -150
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 54%
- Ratings vs. market
- −3.8 pts
- STL: Elo 53.7%, market 57.4%
- Fair odds
- STL -135
- WSH +135 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.9 – 4.6 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1471 | 1484 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | +13 | +7 | WSH: Jake Irvin: team allows 0.65 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Kyle Gibson: team allows 0.36 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +25 Elo | STL 53.7% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 56.2% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 57.4% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 20th of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.122nd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.520th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.4 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 6th of 306–4 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 18th of 3025–29 | Road vs home | 25–2315th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 57–47 | 51–51 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 16–31 |
| Underdog | 48–35 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 50–53–1 | 48–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 4–7 STL in their last 11 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 11.