Washington Nationals at St. Louis Cardinals, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors STL.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Nationals- Juan YepezBatting3-4, 2 RBI
- MacKenzie GorePitching5.0 IP, 6 ER, 3 K
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-5, 1 HR, 3 RBI
- Sonny GrayPitching5.0 IP, 5 ER, 7 K
Scoring summary
- 10Goldschmidt homered to left center (376 feet), Contreras scored.10–8
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play10–8
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 210–8
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 110–8
- 10Abrams reached on infield single to first, Young scored.10–6
- 10Pitch 4 : Ball In Play10–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Foul10–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 210–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 110–6
- 10Young tripled to right, Nuñez scored, L. García Jr. scored and Lipscomb scored.9–6
- 10Pitch 3 : Ball In Play9–6
- 10Pitch 2 : Ball 29–6
- 10Pitch 1 : Ball 19–6
- 7Yepez hit sacrifice fly to center, Abrams scored.6–6
- 7Pitch 1 : Ball In Play6–6
- 5Wood grounded out to first, Winker scored, Yepez to third.5–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play5–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking5–6
- 5Yepez doubled to left, Abrams scored, Winker to third.4–6
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play4–6
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 14–6
- 4Winn singled to left, Pagés scored, Siani to second.3–6
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–6
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 4L. García Jr. singled to right, Yepez scored, Ruiz to second.3–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 23–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 3Arenado homered to left (352 feet), Contreras scored and Burleson scored.2–5
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–5
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–5
- 3Winn homered to left center (417 feet), Siani scored.2–2
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–2
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball 22–2
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 12–2
- 2L. García Jr. doubled to right, Ruiz scored and Yepez scored.2–0
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–0
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 60%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- STL 60%
- ML WSH +140 / STL -170
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −4.6 pts
- STL: Elo 55.6%, market 60.2%
- Fair odds
- STL -151
- WSH +151 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- WSH 3.3 – 4.2 STL
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | WSH | STL | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1469 | 1486 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −4 | 0 | WSH: MacKenzie Gore: team allows 0.22 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · STL: Sonny Gray: team allows 0.02 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | STL +39 Elo | STL 55.6% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 58.6% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | STL 58.1% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 60.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| WSH | Stat | STL |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 21st of 304.6 | Runs allowed | 4.518th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.5 | Margin | −0.422nd of 30 |
| 13th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 5–513th of 30 |
| 19th of 3024–29 | Road vs home | 25–2214th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  WSH |  STL |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 56–47 | 51–50 |
| Last 10 | 4–6 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 9–12 | 16–30 |
| Underdog | 47–35 | 35–20 |
| Overs–unders | 49–53–1 | 47–52–2 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
WSH 3–7 STL in their last 10 meetings; the forecast called 5 of 10.