St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Masyn WinnBatting2-4
- Matthew LiberatorePitching3.0 IP, 5 ER, 3 K
Pirates- Rowdy TellezBatting2-3, 1 HR, 2 RBI
- Martin PerezPitching6.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Scoring summary
- 4Tellez homered to right (447 feet).0–5
- 4Pitch 4 : Ball In Play0–5
- 4Pitch 3 : Ball 20–5
- 4Pitch 2 : Ball 10–5
- 4Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–5
- 2Joe doubled to center, Tellez scored and Taylor scored, McCutchen to third.0–4
- 2Pitch 3 : Ball In Play0–4
- 2Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Looking0–4
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–4
- 2McCutchen walked, Palacios scored, Taylor to second, Tellez to third.0–2
- 2Pitch 7 : Ball 40–2
- 2Pitch 6 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul0–2
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 30–2
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 1 Looking0–2
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 20–2
- 2Pitch 1 : Ball 10–2
- 2Tellez singled to right, Hayes scored, Palacios to third.0–1
- 2Pitch 5 : Ball In Play0–1
- 2Pitch 4 : Ball 20–1
- 2Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul0–1
- 2Pitch 2 : Ball 10–1
- 2Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging0–1
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Cardinals 51%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- STL 51%
- ML STL -115 / PIT -105
- Pre-line forecast
- STL 50%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- STL 49%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.6 pts
- STL: Elo 48.5%, market 51.1%
- Fair odds
- STL -104
- PIT +104 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 4.3 – 4.2 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1488 | 1489 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −12 | −21 | STL: Matthew Liberatore: team allows 0.61 more runs than with its usual starter (≈8 weighted starts) · PIT: Martin Perez: team allows 1.06 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +10 Elo | PIT 51.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | STL 50.0% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 50.2% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | STL 51.1% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 22nd of 304.1 | Runs scored | 4.123rd of 30 |
| 19th of 304.4 | Runs allowed | 4.212th of 30 |
| 21st of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 11th of 305–5 | Last 10 | 7–31st of 30 |
| 13th of 3027–26 | Road vs home | 25–2622nd of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 51–49 | 50–49 |
| Last 10 | 6–4 | 5–5 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 13–29 |
| Underdog | 35–19 | 37–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–51–2 | 47–52 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 5–5 | 3–7 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 9–12 PIT in their last 21 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 21.