St. Louis Cardinals at Pittsburgh Pirates, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors PIT.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Cardinals- Nolan ArenadoBatting1-3, 1 HR, 1 RBI
- Lance LynnPitching5.0 IP, 0 ER, 2 K
Pirates- Nick GonzalesBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Paul SkenesPitching8.1 IP, 2 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 9Burleson singled to right, Siani scored.2–1
- 9Pitch 3 : Ball In Play2–1
- 9Pitch 2 : Strike 2 Foul2–1
- 9Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Foul2–1
- 8N. Gonzales singled to center, Cruz scored.1–1
- 8Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–1
- 5Arenado homered to left center (385 feet).1–0
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Pirates 62%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 60–65% have won 61.6% of 1,194 graded games.
- Market
- PIT 62%
- ML STL +155 / PIT -185
- Pre-line forecast
- PIT 58%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- PIT 56%
- Ratings vs. market
- −5.9 pts
- PIT: Elo 56.5%, market 62.3%
- Fair odds
- PIT -166
- STL +166 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- STL 3.2 – 4.3 PIT
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 7.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | STL | PIT | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1487 | 1491 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −9 | +15 | STL: Lance Lynn: team allows 0.43 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · PIT: Paul Skenes: team allows 0.74 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈7 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | PIT +45 Elo | PIT 56.5% | |
| Market-implied ratings | PIT 58.8% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | PIT 58.5% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | PIT 62.3% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| STL | Stat | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| 21st of 304.2 | Runs scored | 4.221st of 30 |
| 19th of 304.5 | Runs allowed | 4.313th of 30 |
| 23rd of 30−0.3 | Margin | −0.120th of 30 |
| 21st of 304–6 | Last 10 | 8–21st of 30 |
| 12th of 3026–26 | Road vs home | 25–2518th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  STL |  PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 50–49 | 50–48 |
| Last 10 | 5–5 | 6–4 |
| Favorite | 16–30 | 13–28 |
| Underdog | 34–19 | 37–20 |
| Overs–unders | 47–50–2 | 47–51 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 6–4 | 4–6 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
STL 8–12 PIT in their last 20 meetings; the forecast called 12 of 20.