Texas Rangers at Toronto Blue Jays, MLB forecast
Win probability
Starts from the pregame forecast, then moves with the score and the time left after each inning. Above the line favors TOR.
Game center
From the ESPN box score.
Top performers
Rangers- Wyatt LangfordBatting1-4, 1 RBI
- Jose UrenaPitching4.1 IP, 1 ER, 2 K
Blue Jays- Daulton VarshoBatting1-4, 1 HR, 4 RBI
- Kevin GausmanPitching9.0 IP, 3 ER, 8 K
Scoring summary
- 8Varsho hit sacrifice fly to right, Guerrero Jr. scored, Barger to third.3–7
- 8Pitch 7 : Ball In Play3–7
- 8Pitch 6 : Ball 33–7
- 8Pitch 5 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 4 : Ball 23–7
- 8Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Foul3–7
- 8Pitch 2 : Ball 13–7
- 8Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Looking3–7
- 6Horwitz hit sacrifice fly to left, Berroa scored.3–6
- 6Pitch 3 : Ball In Play3–6
- 6Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul3–6
- 6Pitch 1 : Ball 13–6
- 5Kirk singled to center, Guerrero Jr. scored, Turner to second.3–5
- 5Pitch 2 : Ball In Play3–5
- 5Pitch 1 : Ball 13–5
- 3García reached on infield single to second, Langford scored.3–4
- 3Pitch 5 : Ball In Play3–4
- 3Pitch 4 : Ball 33–4
- 3Pitch 3 : Ball 23–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Swinging3–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Ball 13–4
- 3Langford doubled to right, Semien scored.2–4
- 3Pitch 2 : Ball In Play2–4
- 3Pitch 1 : Strike 1 Swinging2–4
- 1Clement singled to center, Kirk scored, Schneider to third.1–4
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball In Play1–4
- 1Varsho homered to left (352 feet), Guerrero Jr. scored and Turner scored.1–3
- 1Pitch 4 : Ball In Play1–3
- 1Pitch 3 : Strike 2 Swinging1–3
- 1Pitch 2 : Strike 1 Foul1–3
- 1Pitch 1 : Ball 11–3
- 1Semien scored on Gausman wild pitch.1–0
- 1Semien scored on Gausman wild pitch.1–0
The pick
Reconstructed from what was known before the game: the ratings at that point and the closing line.
Blue Jays 53%
Forecast Elo ratings alone
How often that comes true: MLB favorites the forecast gave 50–55% have won 52.7% of 2,871 graded games.
- Market
- TOR 53%
- ML TEX +105 / TOR -125
- Pre-line forecast
- TOR 56%
- Elo + market-implied
- Elo ratings
- TOR 51%
- Ratings vs. market
- −2.4 pts
- TOR: Elo 50.8%, market 53.2%
- Fair odds
- TOR -114
- TEX +114 · the forecast as odds, no margin
- Pregame projection
- TEX 4.1 – 4.4 TOR
- Margin from the forecast, posted total 8.5
How the number is built
Elo inputs in rating points (higher favors that team; 25–28 Elo is about a point of spread in football and basketball), then how the pieces combine.
| Factor | TEX | TOR | Why |
|---|---|---|---|
| Team rating | 1516 | 1490 | Elo entering the game; 1500 is league average |
| Home field | — | +18 | Worth 18 Elo in MLB |
| Starting pitchers | −7 | +7 | TEX: Michael Lorenzen: team allows 0.37 more runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) · TOR: Kevin Gausman: team allows 0.35 fewer runs than with its usual starter (≈10 weighted starts) |
| Elo ratings | TOR +6 Elo | TOR 50.8% | |
| Market-implied ratings | TOR 56.7% | Team strength as past closing lines priced it, same game context | |
| Pre-line forecast | TOR 55.8% | 15% Elo, 85% market-implied (log-odds blend) | |
| Forecast | TOR 53.2% | Follows the market (vig removed): in testing, adding the ratings made it less accurate | |
Tale of the tape
This season coming into the game, regular season, each number with its league rank (the longer the bar, the higher). Home and road: the host's record at home against the visitor's on the road.
| TEX | Stat | TOR |
|---|---|---|
| 17th of 304.3 | Runs scored | 4.024th of 30 |
| 14th of 304.2 | Runs allowed | 4.826th of 30 |
| 17th of 30+0.1 | Margin | −0.826th of 30 |
| 1st of 307–3 | Last 10 | 4–621st of 30 |
| 24th of 3022–30 | Road vs home | 24–2826th of 30 |
Rating history
Each team's Elo over the last two seasons. Hover or drag to compare on any date.
Recent form
Last five results, and whether the forecast hit.
Against the line
How each team has done against the closing spread and total, coming into this game.
| This season |  TEX |  TOR |
|---|---|---|
| Run line | 45–59 | 49–54 |
| Last 10 | 3–7 | 3–7 |
| Favorite | 22–40 | 21–34 |
| Underdog | 23–19 | 28–20 |
| Overs–unders | 43–60–1 | 56–46–1 |
| Overs–unders, last 10 | 4–6 | 9–1 |
Against each game's closing line. Books set every line knowing these records: across 3,901 past games, the team with the better record against the spread so far that season covered 51.2%, short of the 52.4% a standard −110 bet needs, and over/under streaks held 48.0% of the time. They describe the past.
Head to head
TEX 6–2 TOR in their last 8 meetings; the forecast called 3 of 8.